(Reuters) - Oil prices will struggle to gain traction in 2021 amid declining demand due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite growing optimism about vaccines and the likely continuation of production cuts by the leading producing countries, showed Monday Reuters poll.
The price of Brent oil in 2021 will average $ 49.35 per barrel, according to a survey of 40 economists and analysts. This figure is not far from the $ 49.76 per barrel indicated in the October forecast. The price of the benchmark in 2020 averages about $ 42.50 per barrel.
"Prospects for global oil demand remain shaky given the second wave of the pandemic and the resulting restrictions in Europe and the United States.", - said Marshall Steves of IEG Vantage.
"Most likely, it will be so in the first quarter of 2021, if not in the second, so OPEC + will face weak oil demand".
The growth of production in Libya is also a negative factor, analysts say, amid investors' expectations of the results of the OPEC + meeting November 30 - December 1.
According to analysts' forecast, global demand will grow by 5.1 million barrels per day to 6.3 million barrels per day in 2021, primarily due to China.
"The aviation sector is currently the Achilles heel of oil demand. Business travel may remain low next year as businesses can expand their use of video conferencing", - said UBS analyst Giovanni Stunovo.
US WTI crude oil futures in 2021 will average $ 46.40 per barrel, up from October consensus of $ 46.03, according to a new poll.
"American rigs are coming back to life, but Joe Biden's administration probably won't allow for a significant increase in production", - said Edward Moya of OANDA.
(Bridgesh Patel in Bangalore. Translated by Alexey Kuzmin. Editor Anna Kozlova)
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